Crypto Bull Tom Lee Reveals 2023 Macro Outlook, Says This Year’s Terrible Conditions Are ‘Unlikely To Persist’
Fundstrat World Advisors’ managing companion Tom Lee thinks the horrible macroeconomic circumstances of 2022 are “unlikely to persist” subsequent yr.
In a brand new Twitter thread, Lee says that he thinks inflation is falling sooner than the markets and the Federal Reserve count on.
The CNBC contributor additionally notes the Fed likes to see a powerful labor market.
“Reminder, many inflation drivers have actually imploded and down/flat for 2022 after surging mid-year. One doesn’t need to look far to see progress.
Whereas wages matter, the Fed doesn’t need to crush the economic system and doesn’t essentially need to crush jobs.”
Lee additionally says shares are likely to bounce again after down years.
“Until the inflation disaster persists, monetary circumstances will ease. This implies shares rise, and shares not often put up back-to-back annual declines In reality, three of the 5 best-ever annual positive factors got here after a ‘unfavourable’ yr…
And it nonetheless puzzles me why the US is the worst-performing international inventory market in 2022 exterior of China-zone-ish international locations. Why is Europe outperforming when Europe is within the tooth of an power crunch/inflation spiral?”
Lee factors to a stat shared by Matt Cerminaro, a analysis affiliate at Fundstrat. Cerminaro notes that there have been solely three years up to now 50 (1974, 2002 and 2008) when the S&P 500 has had as many -1% days as 2022.
The years following 1974, 2002 and 2008 all witnessed a minimum of 23% positive factors, according to Cerminaro.
“Buyers have had a painful yr.
S&P 500 in 2022 has had 63 -1% days. Ouch.
Prior to now 50 years, there have solely been 3 years with as many days down -1%:
1974: n= 67
2002: n= 73
2008: n= 75
Returns in following 12 months:
1975: 32%
2003: 26%
2009: 23%
2023: ?”
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